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Strange Brew and Winter Predictions

“There wasn’t much to do, all the bowling alleys had been wrecked, so as I spent most my time looking for beer.” Bob McKenzie Strange Brew

Its fall, which of course means video premieres, Oktober Fest, and completely unfounded, wild predictions for the upcoming winter. In the spirit of changing leaves, cold mornings, and drunken nights at the drive-in shooting fireworks at the screen, I sat down with my computer and a couple beers to watch Strange Brew and investigate some of the more creditable predictions.


"The East is on tap for a crazy ride, with the temperatures and weather initially leading into the winter season seeming mild, but the bulk of the winter will turn out to be unusually cold, with plenty of snow especially in the northern sections,” reveals Sandi Duncan, Philom, Managing Editor. The Farmers’ Almanac, which accurately predicted the hot, humid summer, is forecasting a more amusing winter in the West, with an overall warmer winter prediction, but with a fair share of snow and cold periods in the country’s midsections.

According to editor Peter Geiger, the Farmer’s Almanac forecasts two years in advance using a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon, claiming 80-85 percent accuracy.

“No way eh, radiation has made me a enemy of civilization.” Doug McKenzie, Strange Brew

AccuWeather's long-range forecasters point to four major factors that would contribute to a colder-than-normal winter in the Northeast:
1. Unusually warm water off the Northeast Coast presages a cooler winter
2. A very active hurricane season correlates with colder winters in the Northeast
3. Cold Canadian air will cool the Northeast
4. Pacific Ocean water temperatures won't help moderate Northeast winter weather

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has stated that “ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.” Basically this means that our little friends El Nino and La Nina will not be active. Paul Kocin stated that “One of the few times that winter forecasts verify well is when weather circulation patterns such as El Nino are quite intense and persistent, such as those which occurred in 1997-1998. However, when El Nino (or its twin sister La Nina) is not very pronounced, the forecasts are difficult to make and currently, El Nino appears to be a weak factor.”

“Just because I don’t know what it is, doesn’t mean I’m lying” One of the Bad Guys, Strange Brew

Just as I was getting really confused about neutral years, I came across these supposedly foolproof methods of winter prediction from The Nature Almanac

“1) Count the number of foggy mornings in August. This number will be the same as the number of snowfalls for the following winter, or if you're not a morning person...
2) Count the number of days from the first snowfall until Christmas. This number will also give the correct number of snowfalls to expect, or...
3) Count the number of days from the first snowfall of the season to the preceding New Moon. This, too, will tell you what the coming winter will bring.”

In the end, most likely no one will get it right. As the winter unfolds there will be surprise storms and perfect powder days. Keep on top of the weather with these sites,

www.intellicast.com
www.accuweather.com
www.noaa.com

“I believe there will be no charge on this to for, ah, beer thank you” Doug McKenzie

“Excuse me” Store Owner

“Okay we found this mouse in a bottle of Elsinore beer that we bought at your beer store, eh, and we heard that when that happens, ah, you get your beer for free.” Doug McKenzie

Canadian Environmental Predic

Canadian Environmental Predictions

good read

we must have got hit by the weather bug on the same day. its starting to dump here. woo woo

Accuweather

AccuWeather.com 2005-2006 Winter Forecast
Wednesday, October 12, 2005 10:21 AM EDT
The AccuWeather.com Long Range Forecast Team, led by Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, has released its official Winter Forecast for 2005-2006. The forecast calls for colder-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, with a milder-than-normal winter in the West.

Snowfall in New England and the mountains of the Pacific Northwest are expected to be above normal, while the center of the nation will see as much as half of the normal snowfall. Overall, New England will be the hardest hit, with a cold and snowy winter expected.

Active Hurricane Season

AccuWeather.com bases its findings on a study of the 2005 hurricane season and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons, particularly 1933, 1969 and 1995. The winters that followed each of those active hurricane years were cold in the Northeast. The winter of 1995-96 was cold across the northern Plains and the Southeast. Bitter cold gripped the Midwest in the winter of 1969-70, while a severe winter settled over the Northeast in 1933-34, a winter that was unseasonably warm west of the Ohio Valley.

Active hurricane seasons are a by-product of warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. The warmer-than-normal water at higher latitudes of the Atlantic sets up a blocking pattern, forcing the cold air that builds across central Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and New England.

Temperature Forecast

The forecast calls colder-than-normal temperatures (by as much as 3.5 degrees) over the Northeast. The West will be warmer than usual, as much as 4 degrees warmer over the Great Basin. This forecast indicates a continuing trend of normal- to below-normal temperatures over the Northeast that started during the winter of 2000-2001 and was interrupted only once. The midsection of the nation will have near to above-normal temperatures.

Snowfall Forecast

The Northeast has seen more snowfall than average in four of the past five winters, and that trend looks to continue again this winter. Factors in the North Atlantic leads to enough cold in the region so that even if it is drier than normal, it will snow more than normal. A warm summer usually leads to normal or above-normal snow amounts in the Great Lakes. This appears to be the idea for the eastern Lakes, but the trend may need to be extended westward.

The other area that will receive above-average snowfall is the mountains of the Pacific Northwest, a welcome change from the dry winter of 2004-2005. The assumption is that the warm water south of Alaska will push storms into the region, so that even if it is milder than normal, it snows more. The warmer-than-normal temperatures, combined with moisture-starved storms, will result in below-normal snowfall in the Plains

National Weather Service

From NOAA ANNOUNCES 2005-2006 U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK released 10/12/05
“What Could Drive This Winter's Weather?
Since early 2005 sea-surface temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean have been near normal. Near normal sea-surface temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to continue for the next three to six months. Therefore, it is unlikely that either the El Niño or La Niña phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle will be present during the upcoming winter. As a result, one key climate feature that could have a particularly large impact in U.S. winter weather, especially along the East Coast, is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO.
The North Atlantic Oscillation often changes its phase from week-to-week. During the positive phase, the jet stream shifts to the north of its usual position and the winter weather features relatively warm days over much of the contiguous U.S. In contrast, during the negative phase the jet stream shifts to the south of its usual position. The negative phase of the NAO features more Nor'easters and more frequent cold air outbreaks and snowstorms, especially along the East Coast. Currently, the phase of the NAO is difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance.
Recognizing the demand to have more precision with seasonal outlooks, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has formed a Climate Test Bed. The Climate Test Bed is a collaborative scientific effort among the operational, academic and research communities. The mission of the Climate Test Bed is to accelerate the transfer of atmospheric and oceanic research and development into operational climate forecasts, products and applications. At present the Climate Test Bed is focused on maximizing the use of the NOAA Climate Forecast System model in combination with other climate forecast tools to improve U.S. seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks.”